For those of you who follow this blog, thank you! We apologize for missing in action the last few weeks but we are back and look forward to providing commentary on the upcoming crop year.
“Are we there yet?” That’s what parents usually hear when driving for an extended period of time with the kids in back of the car. Well kids….. we are here and what a long trip it’s been. Several months of highs, lows, and lots of waiting patiently…. annnnd not so patiently. The wait is over, 2012 crop beans are here! In the dry bean world new crop is the equivalent of Christmas, where growers wait once a year to open their green podded presents in hopes of finding unimaginable spectacular colors inside. Pinto report indications from N.Dakota and Minnesota suggest growers found crops to be average to good condition but with a number of growers reporting conditions varying field to field. Pintos are being reported as having nice bright color and seed size has been better than average.
Most know the story of “How the Grinch stole Christmas” by Dr. Seuss. This year the 2012 drought played the Grinch as he stole dreams of corn, soybeans, and sugar plums dancing in growers heads within a matter of weeks. After an early start to planting for most crop growers, many thought planting was off to a good start and indeed it was, at the beginning. But it doesn’t matter however if you’ve been naughty or nice, mother nature checked her list twice and guess what? She doesn’t give a crap if you been bad or good. Where you live is where you live, and when and where she decides to leave her majesty or fury, she does. Unfortunately, there were many growers who weren’t graced by her visit and many other growers, well…. they lucked out by the simplicity of geography.
As far as dry bean price action is concerned, things will be getting interesting here shortly as most bean traders expect prices to be steady to weak in the short term. Bean growers know what goes up most come down, and lately they have been dropping their price expectations faster than Usain Bolt runs the 40 yard dash. Lets see how things play out here during the rest of September, I have a feeling October will be the month a trend gains momentum.
Overall, we are in a very strange place right now in the world and markets, the stock market is up and commodities have simmered down since a few weeks ago, but all hell could break loose if hedge funds continue to drive up commodities….then of course we could pepper in a little geo-political tension such as an Israeli attack on Iran, or how about this China-Japanese row over deserted islands containing possible resources of natural gas. Also, I hear the Muslim world is kinda upset at an American film maker which has sparked attacks on American embassy’s around the world. Markets feed on the unstable and devour the weak, right now there is plenty of instability in the world to provide a buffet for market participants.
Bottom line: Be careful and watch the news frequently in the coming weeks because your last trade may depend on it. Please click on the links below for further information.