In this issue..
US Elections over with
Commodities and stocks slow
Update on dry beans
Israel strikes Hamas
Its been kinda quite regarding price action in the dry bean market and for most commodities (oil is the exception) the last several weeks due to the US election taking center stage. However, now that everyone knows what they’re getting for another 4 years…I believe we’ll begin to get further direction on the price of commodities and stocks here in the coming weeks. After the US election last week, commodities took an ugly nosedive and fell across the board which continued into trading this week and dragged stocks lower which had been enjoying recent highs until earnings season. Corn seems to just be barely treading water above $7, currently, trading @ $7.26 on the CBOT and spot offers are being touted out in the mid $6’s. Soybeans are another asset class which seems to quite heavy and have already crashed below $15 convincingly, trading seems to be threatening a break below $14 now.
Price action in dry beans has been steady to flat the last several weeks as it seems growers aren’t very motivated to sell new contracts but rather concentrate on shipping pre-contracted beans giving themselves and the market time to get further direction on which way the price action will go. By judging from the overall positioning of traders this week I’m suspecting more growers will begin to come to the market here shortly to make some reasonable offers, in hopes of not having to be forced to make offers to a volatile marketplace-environment.
Speaking of volatility, Israel contributed it’s portion to the global geopolitical landscape this week when it successfully assassinated top leadership in Hamas. Oil has been sliding around as of late but with Israel now upping the ante against Hamas, who we all know is chummy with Iran; oil traders may have the right conditions in season to generate some serious volatile in this sector and if things really heat up with Israel/Iran over this it could just have the potential to set off stocks and other commodities in different directions spreading the contagion.
Thank gosh the US fiscal cliff has been dealt with already……Oh, wait, it hasn’t been. Then let’s continue throwing in further turbulent market factors to see what kind of trading environment will be in store this holiday season and the coming weeks.
Hmmm….if we were going fishing and golfing instead of trading, we’d like to have the perfect morning be something like this: wake up and have some coffee at daybreak, take the boat onto lake water looking like glass and catch the trophy fish by lunchtime, then play golf in the afternoon where we shoot under 80 and hit a-hole-in-one during the round.
But since we are trading markets and not fishing or golfing, unfortunately…And sticking with the metaphors to describe the market environment… I’d say the water’s choppy with thunder beginning to be heard in the distance, the fish aren’t biting this time of the year and golf has been canceled due to rain & lighting expected later on. Winter is around the corner and I just noticed the boat needs a new motor not to mention I can’t find my clubs right now.
Bottom line: Make sure the snowmobile is prepped up because alternative gear will be needed for the change in season