We will be taking a look at last week’s dry bean prices and also provide commentary on this week’s current changes. Bean market pricing has been subdued as of late and has been relegated to range trading according to recent local weather patterns. There was some movement last week in WI/MI LRKidneys to the downside by $2 on the bid. Pinks and Blacks were steady with established pricing set to the low end of their current trading range, beyond this all other varieties stayed unchanged. The dry bean market last week continued to hold its flight pattern steady as harvesting is right around the corner.
For this week of Aug 5, 2012 it is apparent dry bean growers & dealers have gone flat into Friday’s NASS crop report waiting to see what crop yields are looking like before continuing trying to sort out where dry bean pricing should go. One scenario is if crop yields are too low (which most are expecting) corn, soybeans, and wheat are going to rally even further. A potential corn-soybean-wheat rally would definitely influence dry beans to a certain degree causing short term volatility….that is until the “Big 3” bean producing states begin releasing further harvest data (where at that point all reality sets into the market and a trend begins in either direction). If for whatever reason there happens to be a miracle on 34th street within the crop report and yields are above the market’s expectation (not likely though), a short-lived rally would still probably be initiated but only to be later shorted by the big boys with big bank accounts…. to later rally again once all the punters are cleared out of their positions.
But what should happen and what will happen are two totally different things, Mr. Market eventually decides for all participants what really happens.
Summer trading is well in place and things have been slow for dry edible beans, but things are too quite. Even with all the drought news the recent weeks, volatility is only a crop report away and market participants know it. This weeks NOT ESTABLISHED comments by USDA dry bean participants prove everyone is nervous about crop and price expectations. Look for dry beans to begin moving here shortly in either direction.
Bottom line: Reminds me of calm before the storm and having an emergency evacuation route designated is vital for all market participants