In this issue
*US Farmers expecting record income
*Dry bean prices steadily cautious
*Israel/Hamas continue towards war
*World markets mostly up before Thanksgiving
Hello and Happy Thanksgiving to all! I love this time of year because around now is when most people (including myself) can look forward to slowing things down and being with family & friends. Although work is always present during the holiday rush to get things done before the new year, Thanksgiving is the beginning of the holiday season as parties are scheduled and people tend to take much needed rest during the winter break. A whole bunch of US farmers are going to be planning parties and doing their share of dancing til the cows come home this holiday season because of record high prices and insurance claims even after the worst drought in 50 years. US farmers who have crop insurance from Ohio and throughout the corn belt and beyond will be able to break even if not turn a profit this year instead of carrying a loss due to their insurance policies. The USDA November forecasts the size of the 2012 corn and soybean crops were larger than expected which has influenced price action to the downside as other global factors continue to weigh in such as: South American soybean and corn production out of Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay, slide in energy prices, and record consecutive harvests.
Dry bean prices were pretty much steady eddie again this week with a move here and a move there by Great Northerns & Light Red Kidneys. The big white bean seemed a little nervous at first as growers decided to bump up their asks for 2 Wendy’s value cheeseburgers and dealers bid a krispy kreme doughnut less than last week. Light Red Kidneys provided more action this week than Monday Night Football with the Bears and 49ers as LRK dealers ran for deep cover amidst a drop in prices worst than a Colombian mudslide as price action moved the big red bean $1-3. Small Red and Black Bean dealers/growers tried to get in on the action but remained little moved as $1 was all they able to muster on their ask, everything else in the pueblo was steady.
Mr. Market however isn’t always so relaxed during the trading holiday season, in fact, sometimes he’s acts a bit finicky and irrational. I don’t know if its the cold weather that bothers him or the day lights savings time thing, but Mr. Market can be an odd ball during this time. US dollar traders were given a reason to buy dollars yesterday when Eurozone leaders and the IMF decided to sink each other’s battle ship over the formula that is to be used in reducing Greece’s public debt. Seems there are definitely some very hard questions still left unanswered over Greece and how things will handled once and for all, in the meantime Eurozone fears remain over the coming holiday trading season. The Japanese Yen seems to have also been caught in that mudslide that LRKidneys are in as Yen weakened to the 82 handle for the first time in over 6 months. Could the new carry trade be happening in front of our eyes with the recent price action we’ve been seeing in Yen this past week? There’s only 1 real currency that makes sense to use in the Yen carry trade and that’s with the Aussie! Finance Yen and buy Australian dollars, it’s that simple. Pssssss…. Japanese Gov’t…. Now would be a good time to intervene in the FX market, it’ll probably scare traders so much they’ll turn their underwear into a chocolate fudge factory!
On the Israeli and Hamas front, it seems Egypt has some of the charisma that Bill Clinton is known for as they were able to broker a temporary truce (albeit at least for a few hours). World governments and markets remain skeptic in the meantime and it seems heading towards the end of the week most markets are up.
Here at F.Garcia we’d like to give thanks during this Thanksgiving holiday for: family, friends, customers, vendors, this bountiful country, and mostly importantly to God. May all of you enjoy and have a very Happy Thanksgiving this year! God bless!